The Australian horticulture industry has been, and will continue to be, impacted by climate change and variability. Due to horticulture’s dependence on natural resources, especially irrigation, it is inherently vulnerable to climate change and variability. Furthermore, all horticultural crops are sensitive to temperature, and most have specific temperature requirements for the development of optimum yield and quality.

Aside from the physical impacts of climate change on horticultural products and businesses, the industry will also be impacted by the global demand for food, increasing demand for productivity growth in response to this global demand, and the impacts of climate change policy.

Climate Change Scenarios

Projections of future climate change - A mean warming of 0.4 to 2.0ºC is anticipated over most of Australia by the year 2030 (relative to 1990), and 1 to 6ºC by 2070.  Mean temperature change is likely to be greatest inland and least on the coast.  Most warming is expected to occur in spring and summer, and least in winter.

Australian annual mean temperatures have increased by 0.82ºC since 1910, with rapid increases, particularly since 1950, with night-time temperatures increasing faster (0.11ºC/decade) than daytime temperatures (0.06ºC/decade). Night-time (minimum) temperatures have particularly risen sharply in the northeast of Australia. There are also trends from 1957 to 2003 of increasing frequency in hot days (35ºC or more) of 0.08 days per year and a decreasing trend in cold nights (5ºC or less) of 0.16 nights per year.

For further information on GLOBAL scenarios visit http://www.ipcc.ch/

For further information on DOMESTIC scenarios visit the CSIRO website http://www.csiro.au/science/Climate-Change.html

For access to FORECASTING TOOLS SPECIFIC TO PRIMARY INDUSTRIES visit these sites:

• The Bureau of Meteorology forecasting tool titled “Water and the Land - for agriculture and natural resources management” – available at http://www.bom.gov.au/watl/
• The Managing Climate Variability Program for further forecasting tools and research – via http://www.managingclimate.gov.au/
• BOM – Experimental Products web site - http://poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/poama15/map_rt.html