Completed project
Albedo breakdown prediction (CT23003)
Publication date: June 9, 2026
Delivery Partner: Department of Primary Industries NSW
The project developed a preliminary understanding of how weather conditions influence citrus albedo breakdown (AB), a rind disorder that reduces fruit quality and can lead to fruit cracking, rejection and lower grower returns.
Analysis identified a strong relationship between AB incidence and seasonal weather patterns, particularly lower solar radiation and reduced evaporative demand during November, along with higher humidity and moisture conditions in May. The project also produced an early explanatory model that combined climate factors and harvest timing to help explain year-to-year differences in AB risk.
To investigate these relationships, the project analysed 10 years of fruit quality records from a major packing house in Mildura alongside historical climate data from citrus-growing regions across Sunraysia, the Riverina and the Riverland. Researchers examined more than 50,000 truckloads of navel oranges and compared AB incidence with rainfall, solar radiation, temperature, humidity and evapotranspiration. The analysis showed that risk was influenced by a combination of early-season conditions that may predispose fruit to AB, late-season conditions that contribute to symptom development, and later harvest timing that allows symptoms to become more severe.
Albedo breakdown is a recurring industry challenge that can significantly affect fruit marketability and exporter reputation in severe seasons. The disorder was particularly damaging in 2021–22, when some orchards recorded very high levels of affected fruit. Previous research had linked AB with calcium in the rind, but the climatic drivers behind severe outbreaks were not well understood. This project helped address that knowledge gap by identifying clear associations between weather conditions and historical AB incidence.
The findings provide a foundation for developing future prediction tools and management strategies for growers. Better forecasting of high-risk seasons could support harvest planning, risk management and industry preparedness. The project also highlighted the need for improved collection of AB data through packing houses and recommended further field experiments to validate the climate relationships and investigate practical management options.
This project was a strategic levy investment in the Hort Innovation Citrus Fund
© 2026 Horticulture Innovation Australia Limited.
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