Enhancement of the citrus industry forecasting model (CT04021)

This is a final research report from Hort Innovation’s historical archives. Please note that as these reports may date back as far as the 1990s, the content and recommendations within them may be superseded by more recent research.

What was it all about?

In 2002, Hort Innovation (which was then Horticulture Australia Limited) commissioned the Centre for International Economics (CIE) to develop an economic model of the Australian orange and mandarin industry. In early 2005 the then Horticulture Australia Limited requested the CIE to update the model’s data set and to further extend the model.

Changes in world markets, new trade agreements, the introduction of new techniques and many other developments could have had complex and significant effects on citrus growers. An economic model provided a consistent and rigorous framework to analyse these and other developments. By taking available data and combing it with economic theory and the collected wisdom of growers, the model provided a valuable tool for strategic analysis and for evaluating the impact of different research outcomes on the industry.

The original model had been expanded to allow foreign consumers to be identified by their country of residence, allowing the exports of citrus products by country of destination to be identified. Further, the model now allowed for imports into Australia of both citrus and processed product, with the price of both foreign and domestic prices affecting the level of domestic consumption of both fresh fruit and processed product.

The project resulted in enhanced economic modelling capability for the industry and provided an excellent strategic planning tool for the industry, and a way of analysing the various trade-offs and challenges it would face in the future.