Decision support models for Australian dried tree fruit (DT23001)

Challenge  

For dried tree fruit growers to remain financially viable and competitive, their farm management must align with industry best practices, focusing on improving the key drivers of productivity, quality, and profitability.  

In 2018, the South Australian Research and Development Institute (SARDI) released 17 new apricot varieties to the Australian apricot industry. These varieties offer significant advantages, including improved cropping reliability, enhanced fruit quality, higher yields, and better drying ratios. They are also compatible with mechanised, labour-saving production systems, which reduce grower’s labour costs, and increase overall return on investment.  

However, deciding to invest in dried apricot production is complex. It requires careful planning, consideration for technical challenges, and a clear understanding of uncertainties and potential outcomes. Constructing a business case that explores feasibility across multiple scenarios and sensitivities can be time-consuming and requires specialised expertise.  

Response  

The project produced an Excel file which details cost breakdowns for dried apricot enterprises providing sufficient data to calculate cash flow. From this, Apricot Invest was developed - a flexible, user-friendly cash flow analysis tool. Accessible through most web browsers, it allows growers to rapidly and efficiently develop business cases for Australian dried apricot enterprises before committing to a full business plan. 

Benefit  

Apricot Invest is highly customisable, allowing growers to tailor investment models to their unique circumstances. The tool enables users to simulate scenarios and plan in yearly increments over a 20-year period.  

It can test the sensitivity of critical variables such as:  

Experienced horticulturalists have successfully used Apricot Invest to input real-world data and explore production options, risk settings, and potential returns on investment through virtual modelling. The tool’s ability to ask ‘what if’ questions and provide rapid, clear insights via graphs and tables makes it ideal for decision-making and group discussions.  

As a cloud-based software, Apricot Invest is easy to access, secure, and efficient, saving users time and consolidating critical information in one place. It supports informed decision-making by enabling growers to explore enterprise configurations tailored to their individual circumstances using SARDI’s improved apricot varieties.