Sensitivity study - impact of increasing vegetable exports on the domestic market (VG15061)

What was it all about?

This project was responsible for quantifying the economic impacts (on vegetable production, exports and prices) in future scenarios of change in vegetable export activity. The scenarios of change included:

• Freer trade - modelling tariff reductions under the successfully negotiated Free Trade Agreements with China, Japan and Korea. The project found this scenario was expected to increase the demand for levy-paying Australian vegetables in export markets by $4.8 million per year by 2024/25 (a 1.8 per cent increase in export value)
  
  
• Wealthier consumers - modelling a wealth increase leading to a greater demand for more clean, green and safe produce in Asian countries. This scenario was expected to increase demand by $9.35 million per year (a 3.5 per cent increase in total export value of levy-paying vegetables)
  
  
• Greater supply chain efficiency - modelling the achievement of five per cent efficiency in the supply chain between farm gate and the exporting destination. This scenario resulted in the largest increase in value of exports, to the tune of $9.8 million per year (a 3.7 per cent increase in export value).

The researchers noted that the interaction between these distinct scenarios will likely lead to much larger positive impacts for vegetable growers.

The project’s modelling and analysis has also indicated the regions with the greatest potential to expand production and export facing increasing demand for Australian vegetable exports, with full details available in the final report.